Investment Thesis — India’s Pickleball Opportunity

Posting about this thesis was a chance meeting with a friend who wanted to start a pickleball business. From the outset, it seems she’s picking the right opportunity. But given the way Pickleball has taken off in the world and India, the ‘low hanging fruits’ so to speak are soon becoming saturated. Despite this, there remains to be some opportunity for those who are looking at starting a pickleball business in India and this post will look at demystifying all this.

Before we dive in there are a few points I’d advise readers to keep in mind. As opposed to writing disclaimers, I have decided to put down some pointers before reading this:

1. There aren’t many reports on pickleball in India. I suppose this is the primary reason why VCs are not looking at pickleball investments. Perhaps once some traction happens, there will be some interest from VCs. So whatever I am documenting here is my observation.
2. Most calculations have been done bottom-up. It is wrong to draw parallels with similar sports such as tennis badminton or table tennis. To a large extent, I have viewed this as one of the most accessible sports in the world.
3. I am not a VC analyst. I am an angel investor with a handful of investments to my name. Having said that, I haven’t invested in pickleball businesses so far. This thesis would ideally help me make investment decisions.

Current Landscape

The first question I asked myself before writing this post was — Will pickleball become a sport in the Olympics? The premise of the Olympic Games has always been to celebrate sports. The spirit of amateur sports has always been prevalent in the Olympic Games. But, given the way the Games are set up today, Pickleball appears to have found a place in Indian families looking at easy sports to pick up.

On a personal level, I learned Pickleball in about 15 minutes. The scoring took me some time, but it was the furthest I could get from rocket science. This has made it among the most accessible sports in the world.

That said, pickleball seems to be a sport that is more for fun and recreation as opposed to something that professionals would look at. While some do play Pickleball professionally, how it is being adopted suggests that it will be more recreational as opposed to professional.

Coming back to our question: Will pickleball become an Olympic sport? Despite several individuals taking up coaching and participating in tournaments, the professional pickleball scene looks to be evolving. But from a VC perspective, it doesn’t seem to be there yet.

That said, I would break the pickleball opportunity in the flowchart below. The Greenfields have been marked in green and opportunities I can see in the pickleball scene in India.

To understand the landscape better, I have further segmented the industry based on the chart above:

I’d like to add a note on sports content (a Cricbuzz for Pickleball of sorts). It makes sense to add it here separately as a note since it’s not a greenfield yet. Moreover, it cannot be considered a yellow or red field either since the sport isn’t as mature as any of the other competitive sports. There also aren’t many ‘influencers’ or individuals of repute (Roger Federer types). Until that happens, it will be difficult to imagine a ‘Pickleball Times’ happening. This part has been excluded from the thesis.

Market Size/ TAM

North State Surfacing reported that the overall pickleball ecosystem was valued at 1.32 billion USD globally. The report also stated that the paddle market was valued at 152.8 million USD. The global market is expected to reach 2.36 billion USD by 2028. Whether these numbers are hit remains to be seen.

Specific to India, Pickleball has seen significant traction since the pandemic. As of 2024, at least 50,000 people have played the game. The All India Pickleball Association has committed INR 5 Crore to build 500 courts across the country. Organizations like KheloMore and several others are also looking at tapping into this. From a bottom-up perspective, India’s pickleball market should look at the following:

1. At least 10 million pickleball players by 2028.
2. There will be 500–700 new courts by then as well — given the way the sport has been growing.
3. The cost of equipment (paddles, balls, and other accessories) should be optimized.

Based on these factors, I’d value the pickleball market in India in the following ways:

1. Should India look at going from 50k to 10 million players, the CAGR would be approx 18.9% YoY.
2. This would value the market cumulatively at 6 billion USD.
3. The manufacturing + equipment sales should be anywhere between 1 to 2 billion USD.

Front office sports reports that most paddles and balls are imported from China. This is perhaps the reason for the high cost and low servicing of equipment. Another perspective is the manner in which pickleball has grown in Canada to become the 7th most popular sport. Should we look at drawing parallels between pickleball’s growth in India and Canada?

Industry Trends / Key Insights

Based on the data, the following are observations I have made:

1. Pickleball is no doubt growing. And growing fast. Businesses looking at tapping into this market should look at reading the trends.
2. The number of players is going to increase. The way Pickleball is growing, it's clear that more individuals and groups will have access to it.
3. India’s sports manufacturing is among the strongest in the world. Cricket bats coming from Ludhiana and hockey sticks coming from Jalandhar are among the best in terms of quality. Perhaps these can become powerhouses of pickleball equipment manufacturing.
4. I am also quite bullish on setting up manufacturing units to manufacture pickleball paddles and balls. The import delta from China is seemingly what has inflated the price of paddles.

Risks & Challenges

Future Outlook

As mentioned earlier in this post, I am bullish on moving manufacturing from China to India. I am still trying to understand the unit economics of it but I am convinced that there should be a way to reduce equipment costs. One example I can think of is Fischer tennis racquets. In a world where Head, Wilson, and Babolat were dominating the market, Fischer moved production to India and ensured that good-quality racquets could be procured at fair costs.

Several brands in Decathlon have followed this model. While pickleball as a sport continues to be accessible to all, the cost of equipment will also continue to come down. Here’s what I would look at investing in:

1. Equipment manufacturing to bring down costs of basic pickleball equipment — paddles and balls.
2. Servicing of paddles — grips and heads would need to be changed as and when needed.
3. Content around pickleball — Would need to understand a bit first, but I believe there is a sweet spot to be found.

Disclaimer — There is a reason investor circles aren’t talking much about pickleball. It is that not many publications or consulting firms haven’t spoken about it. My thesis is an attempt to talk about the landscape and identify opportunities in the space. If you do find value in this report, I wish you well. If you have any queries, I’d be happy to engage in a healthy debate. In case of anything else, feel free to blame God or anyone else for any actions upon me.